Explicando eventos extremos desde una perspectiva climática

Este informe especial de BAMS presenta evaluaciones de cómo el cambio climático causado por el hombre puede haber afectado la fuerza y ??la probabilidad de eventos extremos individuales.

Esta sexta edición de la explicación de los eventos extremos del año anterior (2016) desde una perspectiva climática es la primera de estos informes en encontrar que algunos eventos extremos no fueron posibles en un clima preindustrial.

Los eventos fueron el calor global récord de 2016, el calor en Asia, así como una ola de calor marina en la costa de Alaska.

• 2016 record global heat,
• Heat across Asia, y
• Marine heat wave off the coast of Alaska.

Si bien estos resultados son novedosos, no fueron inesperados. Los científicos de la atribución del clima han estado prediciendo que, con el tiempo, la influencia del cambio climático causado por los humanos se volverá lo suficientemente fuerte como para empujar los eventos más allá de los límites de la variabilidad natural por sí solos.

También se predijo que primero observaríamos este fenómeno para los eventos de calor donde la influencia del cambio climático es más pronunciada. Análisis retrospectivos adicionales revelarán si, de hecho, estos son los primeros eventos de su tipo o simplemente fueron algunos de los primeros en ser descubiertos. Leer más aquí.

Descarga por capítulos:

1. Introduction to Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective
2. Explaining Extreme Ocean Conditions Impacting Living Marine Resources
3. CMIP5 Model-based Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence on Record Global Warmth during 2016
4. The Extreme 2015/16 El Niño, in the Context of Historical Climate Variability and Change
5. Ecological Impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño in the Central Equatorial Pacific
6. Forcing of Multiyear Extreme Ocean Temperatures that Impacted California Current Living Marine Resources in 2016
7. CMIP5 Model-based Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence on Highly Anomalous Arctic Warmth during November–December 2016
8. The High Latitude Marine Heat Wave of 2016 and Its Impacts on Alaska
9. Anthropogenic and Natural Influences on Record 2016 Marine Heat Waves
10. Extreme California Rains During Winter 2015/16: A Change in El Niño Teleconnection?
11. Was the January 2016 Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm “Jonas” Symptomatic of Climate Change?
12. Anthropogenic Forcings and Associated Changes in Fire Risk in Western North America and Australia during 2015/16
13. A Multimethod Attribution Analysis of the Prolonged Northeast Brazil Hydrometeorological Drought (2012–16)
14. Attribution of Wintertime Anticyclonic Stagnation Contributing to Air Pollution in Western Europe
15. Analysis of the Exceptionally Warm December 2015 in France using Flow Analogues
16. Warm Winter, Wet Spring, and an Extreme Response in Ecosystem Functioning on the Iberian Peninsula
17. Anthropogenic Intensification of Southern African Flash Droughts as Exemplified by the 2015/16 Season
18. Anthropogenic Enhancement of Moderate-to-Strong El Niño Events Likely Contributed to Drought and Poor Harvests in Southern Africa during 2016
19. Climate Change Increased the Likelihood of the 2016 Heat Extremes in Asia
20. Extreme Rainfall (R20mm, RX5day) in Yangtze–Huai, China, in June–July 2016: The Role of ENSO and Anthropogenic Climate Change
21. Attribution of the July 2016 Extreme Precipitation Event over China’s Wuhan
22. Do Climate Change and El Niño Increase Likelihood of Yangtze River Extreme Rainfall?
23. Human Influence on the Record-Breaking Cold Event in January of 2016 in Eastern China
24. Anthropogenic Influence on the Eastern China 2016 Super Cold Surge
25. The Hot and Dry April of 2016 in Thailand
26. The Effect of Increasing CO2 on the Extreme September 2016 Rainfall across Southeastern Australia
27. Natural Variability Not Climate Change Drove the Record Wet Winter in Southeast Australia
28. A Multifactor Risk Analysis of the Record 2016 Great Barrier Reef Bleaching
29. Severe Frosts in Western Australia in September 2016
30. Future Challenges in Event Attribution Methodologies

Past Reports

• Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective
• Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective
• Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective
• Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective
• Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective

BAMS http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2016/2016_bams_eee_low_res.pdf